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Colombian economy 35

Published in Colombian economy Written by September 29 2017 0

The latest report from Colombia’s national economic statistics agency (DANE – Departamento Administrative Nacional de Estadistica) shows that Colombian exports through August 2017 are up 15.7% year-on-year and 19.5% for the first eight months of 2017.

Antioquia once again leads all departments in the nation with an 18.8% share in total dollar value of exports (excluding petroleum), while the United States continues as the number-one destination for Colombia exports, receiving 29.1% of the total, according to DANE.

Agricultural product exports (including processed foods and drinks) jumped 22.2% year-on-year in August, while the first eight-months of 2017 saw a 13.4% rise compared to the same eight months in 2016, mainly thanks to coffee exports.

However, manufactured product exports so far this year have fallen 11.2%, the agency found. Exports to neighboring “socialist” Venezuela showed the steepest drop – down 61% this year-- thanks to that country’s ever-worsening economic disaster, the DANE statistics show.

By categories, the biggest declines in exports were in chemicals, specialized machinery, non-metallic minerals and pharmaceuticals.

As for “other” Colombian exports, this sector showed a 10.4% year-on-year gain in August, mainly because of a rise in gold exports, up 11.5%.

For the first eight months of 2017, combustible product exports showed a 27% improvement year-on-year, mainly because of a jump in coal and petroleum-coke exports, DANE found.

Published in Colombian economy Written by September 01 2017 0

The latest report from Colombia’s national Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) shows that industrial production in metropolitan Medellin dropped 10% year-on-year in second quarter (2Q) 2017 and has fallen 6.8% through first-half (1H) 2017 (see chart, above).

A sharp drop in textiles output (down 25%) and a 19.8% drop in “other manufactured goods” production during 2Q 2017 largely explains the over-all decline, according to DANE’s regional statistical report  on Colombian manufacturing.

Sales of manufactured goods in metro Medellin also dropped 8.5% in the latest quarter, while employment in manufacturing also dipped 3.4% year-on-year, according to the agency.

On the bright side, 2Q 2017 output of basic chemicals in metro Medellin rose 3% while “other chemicals" output rose 3.7% year-on-year, according to DANE.

In other key Colombian regions, 2Q 2017 manufacturing output dropped 8.9% year-on-year in Bogota, fell 4.4% in the Santander regions, and slipped 1.7% in the Cali-Yumbo region. However, output climbed 1.4% year-on-year in the Barranquilla-Cartagena-Santa Marta region and rose by a fractional 0.1% in the coffee region, according to DANE.

Published in Colombian economy Written by June 15 2017 0

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in a report issued May 31 that Colombia’s economy is starting to rebound – and it’s performing much better than its neighbors following the oil-price collapse nearly three years ago.

As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would rebound to 2.3% this year, up from 2.0% last year, according to the report.

Inflation as measured by consumer price index (CPI) is expected to fall to 4.5% this year, down from 7.5% last year, while current-account deficit is seen dropping to 3.8% of GDP, down from 4.4% last year, according to the report.

“In 2016, Colombia continued a remarkably smooth adjustment to a combination of large external and domestic shocks, with economic growth outpacing regional peers and achieving further improvements in poverty and inequality,” according to the report.

While GDP growth slowed in 2016 versus 2015 due to falling oil revenues, weak demand from neighbor countries and higher inflation, “Colombia faces a favorable outlook underpinned by the peace agreement and the structural tax reform together with the authorities’ infrastructure agenda,” according to the report.

“Economic activity will rebound slightly this year as investment will strengthen boosted by reduced corporate taxation and confidence stemming from the peace agreement.

“Non-traditional exports are gaining steam in part due to ongoing efforts to reduce trade barriers and this will contribute to bring the current account deficit to its equilibrium level.

“Medium-term growth will be driven by economic diversification away from oil, which will benefit from the infrastructure agenda and the peace agreement that will improve ompetitiveness and regional development.

“Risks to this outlook are to the downside with the main near-term risk stemming from the still large (but moderating) external financing needs. Domestically, while the banking system appears sound and broadly resilient to shocks, some pockets of corporate vulnerability have emerged.

“On the upside, a faster-than-expected implementation of the peace agreement could strengthen medium-term growth even more.

“Going forward, inclusive growth will depend more on diversification supported by structural reforms including on improving infrastructure, streamlining regulation, easing trade barriers and strengthening the efficiency of public expenditure. The tax reform will boost medium-term inclusive growth by allowing a strengthening in public investment and social spending,” IMF concluded.

IMF’s near-term outlook is for a “gradual growth pickup,” according to the multilateral agency.

IMF “projects growth to increase to 2.3% in 2017 as the economy gradually diversifies away from commodities. Lower inflation will partly offset the drag on private consumption from the VAT [value-added tax] increase while investment is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.

“Credit growth will be subdued as lending standards tighten in response to somewhat weaker corporate financial strength and due to softening consumers’ credit demand. Medium-term growth of about 3.5% will be underpinned by non-commodity exports, infrastructure spending, and improved confidence stemming from the peace agreement.

“The current account deficit is projected to narrow further in 2017 and gradually converge to its medium-term equilibrium. Additional import compression due to sluggish domestic demand, improved tourism receipts, and growing non-traditional exports will reduce the deficit to 3.8 % of GDP in 2017,” the report concludes.

 

Published in Colombian economy Written by April 04 2017 0

The latest report from Colombia’s economic statistics agency (DANE) shows that Antioquia’s exports rose 14.7% year-on-year in the first two months of 2017 -- and Antioquia likewise continues to surpass all Colombian departments in total share of exports, at 19.4%.

Published in Colombian economy Written by March 13 2017 0

Thanks to the Colombian government’s recent tax reform law (see Medellin Herald on December 29, 2016), Wall Street bond rater Fitch has just decided to upgrade Colombia’s debt-risk outlook to “stable,” up from its former “negative” rating.

Published in Colombian economy Written by February 24 2017 0

Colombia’s national economic statistics agency (DANE) announced February 22 that gross domestic product (PIB in Spanish initials) grew 2% year-on-year in 2016, down from 3.1% in 2015.

Published in Colombian economy Written by February 14 2017 0

Colombia’s national economic statistical agency -- Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, DANE -- reported February 14 that its latest monthly manufacturers’ survey (Encuesta Mensual Manufacturera, EMM) shows a strong industrial rebound for full-year 2016.

Published in Colombian economy Written by January 23 2017 0

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank this month issued nearly identical 2.6% and 2.5% growth projections for Colombia gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017.

Published in Colombian economy Written by October 20 2016 0

The Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce (Cámara de Comercio Colombo Americana) on October 20 hailed recent advances in the “Plan Vallejo” regulatory and reporting scheme that covers imports and exports into-and-out-of Colombia.

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About Medellin Herald

Medellin Herald is a locally produced, English-language news and advisory service uniquely focused upon a more-mature audience of visitors, investors, conference and trade-show attendees, property buyers, expats, retirees, volunteers and nature lovers.

U.S. native Roberto Peckham, who founded Medellin Herald in 2015, has been residing in metro Medellin since 2005 and has traveled regularly and extensively throughout Colombia since 1981.

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